I have never really been fond of playing cards. Other than the convenience of playing them while traveling, I really do not find much to excite me. But I was recently introduced to Poker or Texas Hold’em- thanks to some friends who play it regularly.
I am not fond of gambling, but learning more about the game has made me realize that this game is nothing but what we call real life situation.
Let me just go through and show you how the two are actually analogous.
Everything starts with the seed: You cannot start any project, or be a part of any new venture in life unless you posses the basic requirements for it. This can be money, skill, an idea or simply being the right man or lady. So is true for Poker, you or someone needs to put in the boot amount on the table to start.
Making the best of all you have: Every person is dealt two cards and a maximum of 5 cards open on the table. All you need to do is use any 5 to make the best hand out of them. That is so true for most of us, we are always in a situation which involves things within and outside our control, but we have to make the best out of it.
Internal Conflicts: Best 5 cards to choose from 7, the combination that will be the winning; all are like the conflicts we all have while working with options.
External Factors: On any day, having a pair of Aces in my hand will make me feel a winner; but not in Poker. There are winners above just a higher card. What if someone else has a better hand- may be a full house or a straight sequence? That is exactly what happens in reality- that’s how you may lose the deal which you believe was your best offer.
Managing the odds: Poker has made me realize that the Ace is not the winner always and nor is 2 the lowest card- it is all the way you manage your cards with the cards on the deck. It is much like having the perfect job, perfect partner but not the perfect life, while there might be someone with lesser perfection but a winner feeling more success and satisfaction.
Taking your chances: If you can risk it in Poker, you will definitely evaluate opportunities and risks in life. Every game you just seem to be doing a SWOT over and over again.
Money power works: Yes, no escaping this fact. If you have the money, you can bet on anything just for the sake. If you serious, raise the stakes so high that people cannot match you. If you have the guts- may be just go all in and bleed the rest. I guess I don’t even have to stress on how a reliant company does this to perfection.
Being the Poker face: Something I am still to learn- playing with a straight face and not letting the world guess what you have or intend to do. Letting people live under illusions and waiting for the time you strike with full force. We all do this in real life since at every stage, we are always competing- jobs, clients, partners…. Its endless.
Overall… win or lose- it is up to us to learn the basic and apply it right.
Monday, September 6, 2010
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Bunch of Nutts!!!!
After quite a while, I am finding that going every morning to office is not something I hate. The reason- working in Radio City has changed me as a person over the last one year.
Now don’t jump to a conclusion that it is possibly since there is no work, or no moments of stress and life is a party. No; not so… but I guess it’s a few people around me who have made a difference in the way I am at a work place. And that is simply because we have so much in common that there is no dull moment at work.
Often I have come across people who have linking in terms of music, movies etc which have overlapped with mine. But this time- thanks to Nitin Rajan and Biswaraj , the overlap is so huge, that every discussion has an element of nostalgia attached. And these are discussions which have no linkages with what normal people might even like to associate. Yes- we agree that we do not fall into some pseudo norms set; we are fanatics.
What makes me say that… okay, question: name any two songs by Narendra Chanchal???
Hmm… I know what’s the bigger question in your mind- who is Narendra Chanchal??? Now worries, Google Uncle will help here. (Also note he’s the 2nd most popular Narendra after Narendra Modi)
If that’s tough cookie to crack- who sounds worse, Mohammad Aziz or Shabbir Kumar??? Well this is an actual discussion where even Radio City’s most popular RJ Love Guru joined in, gave his inputs. The song list pulled beyond count. The last words from the man,”…yaar, kabhi fursat mein baith te hain- tum logon ne kuch zamane yaad dila diye hain…”
We today are like garbage bins of all sorts of useless trivia. We know which song has On Shiv Puri dancing or a Bappida track named Gulai gulai go is from which movie. Why crazy sound tracks- we have a liking for things I really doubt people recall. Nitin has skimmed the net to track down the totle track of Fireball XL5. I trip on the Fraggle Rock title. We sit on youtube and hunt down title tracks of serials from our childhood. Neev, Dhoop Chav, Ye jo hai Zindagee…. the list is endless.
But we are not stuck in past. A part is lost in the old days, a larger part lives in present. We love Bappida and Shabbir Kumar, but we also have high knowledge of Kishore Kumar and Rafi. We listen to absurd stuff, but also have our Rock Idols.
We in the true sense are a bunch of nutts!!!
Now don’t jump to a conclusion that it is possibly since there is no work, or no moments of stress and life is a party. No; not so… but I guess it’s a few people around me who have made a difference in the way I am at a work place. And that is simply because we have so much in common that there is no dull moment at work.
Often I have come across people who have linking in terms of music, movies etc which have overlapped with mine. But this time- thanks to Nitin Rajan and Biswaraj , the overlap is so huge, that every discussion has an element of nostalgia attached. And these are discussions which have no linkages with what normal people might even like to associate. Yes- we agree that we do not fall into some pseudo norms set; we are fanatics.
What makes me say that… okay, question: name any two songs by Narendra Chanchal???
Hmm… I know what’s the bigger question in your mind- who is Narendra Chanchal??? Now worries, Google Uncle will help here. (Also note he’s the 2nd most popular Narendra after Narendra Modi)
If that’s tough cookie to crack- who sounds worse, Mohammad Aziz or Shabbir Kumar??? Well this is an actual discussion where even Radio City’s most popular RJ Love Guru joined in, gave his inputs. The song list pulled beyond count. The last words from the man,”…yaar, kabhi fursat mein baith te hain- tum logon ne kuch zamane yaad dila diye hain…”
We today are like garbage bins of all sorts of useless trivia. We know which song has On Shiv Puri dancing or a Bappida track named Gulai gulai go is from which movie. Why crazy sound tracks- we have a liking for things I really doubt people recall. Nitin has skimmed the net to track down the totle track of Fireball XL5. I trip on the Fraggle Rock title. We sit on youtube and hunt down title tracks of serials from our childhood. Neev, Dhoop Chav, Ye jo hai Zindagee…. the list is endless.
But we are not stuck in past. A part is lost in the old days, a larger part lives in present. We love Bappida and Shabbir Kumar, but we also have high knowledge of Kishore Kumar and Rafi. We listen to absurd stuff, but also have our Rock Idols.
We in the true sense are a bunch of nutts!!!
Sunday, August 1, 2010
Trapped in the Net
There was a time, I guess during Engineering college days- that seeking information on anything was a job. This was the time when notes from the senior batch, projects from their batch had so much value that they could even earn decent money.
But information more valuable usually came in from the non academic front. The super spies were not the ones to infiltrate into enemy territory and steal documents, it was the Bond’s who could walk up to a girl to get an intro and at times even walk back with complete data profiles like phone number, her likes and dislikes and most critical one: do you stand a chance?
Second to this was background information. Where has this good for nothing Prof come from? How the hell did this guy ever work in the industry? This girl claims she was a college queen… did this bimbo even been there? The sources were scarce, which made speculations too easy. There were no means of a double check.
There was a recent discussion I had with two different people, both using movies as an example to gauge how much dependence on technology can endanger human race. My father saw a movie named “The Net” and was amazed that a smart hacker could destroy the existence of a person virtually by erasing all records in Government and Social registries. Another friend of mine was sharing the possibility of why nuclear weapons were still being feared when a situation as in “Die Hard 4” could hold the world at ransom based on the fact that some people hold all the keys.
As we all are getting wired to the Net and information of ours is no longer a part of a government file stacked under a million others, the access has become easy. Best part is you don’t need to be a wiz to get information any more. Thanks to social networks, cross linkages to websites and search engines which can search meta tags and content, nothing is impossible.
I guess this all has changed with Internet searches becoming an integral part of our lives. The level of information available on the net soon started making internet searches more popular than skimming the index, glossary and appendix sections in a book. Though books will always be referred for the fact that we always seem to have more faith in what’s on paper.
But the degree of personal information that became available on the net is simply amazing. I would say till somewhere close to 2004-05, social media was still finding its feet in the water. But for people who adapted to this new revolution initially, used it as if it was a reflection of their own self in the virtual world. It was not until some misuse of the information started that privacy settings came into existence.
Even then, we today have amazing level of information at our fingertips. I remember till two years ago, while going for a meeting, we always made a point to as a few contacts about the person we were out to meet. Recently, prior to going for a meeting, I just hit a search for the person and his organization. I had information about his previous 3 employers, the time he spent there, college, schooling all in hand before I even saw his face. What it gave me was a hundred things to talk about on topics I knew the person had a background in and presenting me in a way that made an easy connect with his background.
I thereby want to just sum it up saying that ‘I don’t know’ is a lame excuse. Information today is as plenty as fish in the ocean- all you need to know is the right place and the right way to trap it in the net.
But information more valuable usually came in from the non academic front. The super spies were not the ones to infiltrate into enemy territory and steal documents, it was the Bond’s who could walk up to a girl to get an intro and at times even walk back with complete data profiles like phone number, her likes and dislikes and most critical one: do you stand a chance?
Second to this was background information. Where has this good for nothing Prof come from? How the hell did this guy ever work in the industry? This girl claims she was a college queen… did this bimbo even been there? The sources were scarce, which made speculations too easy. There were no means of a double check.
There was a recent discussion I had with two different people, both using movies as an example to gauge how much dependence on technology can endanger human race. My father saw a movie named “The Net” and was amazed that a smart hacker could destroy the existence of a person virtually by erasing all records in Government and Social registries. Another friend of mine was sharing the possibility of why nuclear weapons were still being feared when a situation as in “Die Hard 4” could hold the world at ransom based on the fact that some people hold all the keys.
As we all are getting wired to the Net and information of ours is no longer a part of a government file stacked under a million others, the access has become easy. Best part is you don’t need to be a wiz to get information any more. Thanks to social networks, cross linkages to websites and search engines which can search meta tags and content, nothing is impossible.
I guess this all has changed with Internet searches becoming an integral part of our lives. The level of information available on the net soon started making internet searches more popular than skimming the index, glossary and appendix sections in a book. Though books will always be referred for the fact that we always seem to have more faith in what’s on paper.
But the degree of personal information that became available on the net is simply amazing. I would say till somewhere close to 2004-05, social media was still finding its feet in the water. But for people who adapted to this new revolution initially, used it as if it was a reflection of their own self in the virtual world. It was not until some misuse of the information started that privacy settings came into existence.
Even then, we today have amazing level of information at our fingertips. I remember till two years ago, while going for a meeting, we always made a point to as a few contacts about the person we were out to meet. Recently, prior to going for a meeting, I just hit a search for the person and his organization. I had information about his previous 3 employers, the time he spent there, college, schooling all in hand before I even saw his face. What it gave me was a hundred things to talk about on topics I knew the person had a background in and presenting me in a way that made an easy connect with his background.
I thereby want to just sum it up saying that ‘I don’t know’ is a lame excuse. Information today is as plenty as fish in the ocean- all you need to know is the right place and the right way to trap it in the net.
Friday, July 16, 2010
First Impressions
There is one thing I must say I have learnt from Michael Jackson; that is of course beyond how to Moonwalk by spreading soapy water in the bathroom floor. No matter how many reasons and explanations you have for a certain actions, people often like to go ahead with first impressions.
At present, I feel am going through a phase where my spare time is aligned to one key word- Search. Well, someone in my college once made a sweeping statement saying ‘Google is God’, but sadly this god is yet to transform its search results into augmented reality for me.
The primary reason, my current array of search is more of the personal kind; one for a better job and one for what people officially recognize as getting settled in life. Though a new entrant in the latter, I have realized that one thing seems common across- split second decisions based on first impression. Let me explain how I came to this great theory.
During a recent interaction between me and an HR Consultant (Head hunters I guess was a term apt for medieval Dragon Slayers), I made a casual enquiry about anything I might need to carry or know in particular for the interview. The lady was kind enough to a link to a website with things to do and not to do for an interview, talking about the usual basic etiquette.
Now I have no intention of any arrogance, but I have so far been employed by decently recognized organizations and didn’t need that refresher course on how to sit, talk or dress for an interview. But I guess that lady need not be blamed; CV (if read) and interviews are more or less about first impressions.
I can safely say that CVs are mostly never read by the right people. At one place, I was asked how my CV went up to 4 pages without realizing it was the amount of breathing space and indentation was for them to make any notes or jot comments. A facility I had provided by making a 2 and half page document into 4 was seen more as bragging rather than its easy readability. But does it matter, after all they were more interested to see if I was fit enough (physically and professionally) to do sales for them.
Strangely, I have come across a similar pattern on matrimonial sites. Needless to say, people still believe that matches can be made on face value. We strangely still have a taste for physical aspects more than what we want in people on a psychological or temperamental level. The prime evidence to this lies in the open fact that sometimes I have found it difficult to distinguish a matrimonial site from an online shopping portal- critical pints and specifications(on shopping sites only) are hidden as more information.
Photographs play a huge role on a matrimonial profile and building that impactful first impression.
Baseless allegations you say- well gamma adjustment in Photo shop is a god sent gift for most wanting- to- be brides. This weapon is used to the maximum as pictures start to resemble albinos. I mean, the westerners crave for a tan, and we crave for appearing albino. I guess post the movie Satyam Shivam Sundaram, left and right profile pictures have become a mandatory requirement. Not to forget, pictures clicked abroad before a street market in KL or a camel and Sheiks in strange positions in the sands have a greater value. So what if the camel or a basket of bananas covers 70% of the photograph?
I know I have been called a pessimist with a tendency to go fault finding in everything around me. But I have something to say- If I should not judge a book by its cover, or understand that people have layers and it takes time before you know them well, how can we still take calls based on first impressions?
At present, I feel am going through a phase where my spare time is aligned to one key word- Search. Well, someone in my college once made a sweeping statement saying ‘Google is God’, but sadly this god is yet to transform its search results into augmented reality for me.
The primary reason, my current array of search is more of the personal kind; one for a better job and one for what people officially recognize as getting settled in life. Though a new entrant in the latter, I have realized that one thing seems common across- split second decisions based on first impression. Let me explain how I came to this great theory.
During a recent interaction between me and an HR Consultant (Head hunters I guess was a term apt for medieval Dragon Slayers), I made a casual enquiry about anything I might need to carry or know in particular for the interview. The lady was kind enough to a link to a website with things to do and not to do for an interview, talking about the usual basic etiquette.
Now I have no intention of any arrogance, but I have so far been employed by decently recognized organizations and didn’t need that refresher course on how to sit, talk or dress for an interview. But I guess that lady need not be blamed; CV (if read) and interviews are more or less about first impressions.
I can safely say that CVs are mostly never read by the right people. At one place, I was asked how my CV went up to 4 pages without realizing it was the amount of breathing space and indentation was for them to make any notes or jot comments. A facility I had provided by making a 2 and half page document into 4 was seen more as bragging rather than its easy readability. But does it matter, after all they were more interested to see if I was fit enough (physically and professionally) to do sales for them.
Strangely, I have come across a similar pattern on matrimonial sites. Needless to say, people still believe that matches can be made on face value. We strangely still have a taste for physical aspects more than what we want in people on a psychological or temperamental level. The prime evidence to this lies in the open fact that sometimes I have found it difficult to distinguish a matrimonial site from an online shopping portal- critical pints and specifications(on shopping sites only) are hidden as more information.
Photographs play a huge role on a matrimonial profile and building that impactful first impression.
Baseless allegations you say- well gamma adjustment in Photo shop is a god sent gift for most wanting- to- be brides. This weapon is used to the maximum as pictures start to resemble albinos. I mean, the westerners crave for a tan, and we crave for appearing albino. I guess post the movie Satyam Shivam Sundaram, left and right profile pictures have become a mandatory requirement. Not to forget, pictures clicked abroad before a street market in KL or a camel and Sheiks in strange positions in the sands have a greater value. So what if the camel or a basket of bananas covers 70% of the photograph?
I know I have been called a pessimist with a tendency to go fault finding in everything around me. But I have something to say- If I should not judge a book by its cover, or understand that people have layers and it takes time before you know them well, how can we still take calls based on first impressions?
Monday, June 21, 2010
Grains of sand in an hour clock
I believe it won’t be a task to guess this is going to be like a trip down the memory lane. But this one is a little different- it’s a walk down the memories attached to my mail box. I know- it is absurd; but I did discover something- a mail box wide open does not lie. Also, a look down the mail box was not one of my stray week end thought; it was sparked by what happened this morning.
Out of the blue today, I happened to chat with my friend Rahul Pilani today and it struck me- damn, there was a time we had at least two forwards being shared across, chat on the messenger all night and all this was after having spent the whole day in college in the same class. Today, we started from the page where we knew the name and face; but no clue what we both are doing. End result- it prompted me to run down my mail box to trace when was it last I wrote a group mail to my college buddies.
What is has done has opened up a whole journey of time travel. My mail box has actually marked events in my life along with how I have changed as a person along the way.
I discovered I have a mail id on Yahoo since 1998, something I have as my rightful ownership since junior college when thanks to my brother, we finally had an internet enabled PC in the house. Those were the day of stealing user ids and passwords off VSNL users, 28.3 kbps modems and the ‘ppp’ and ‘F6’ to get into the wonder world of internet. I had a student account on VSNL that allowed no graphics, no surprise I never liked it or used it to the full.
By 1999, I was into engineering and the new toys in hand were the ICQ messenger, Yahoo Chat rooms etc. (Sorry, I’m unable to recall some other chat sites I frequented) Its stunning to know that I was a quite a flirt. I have mails from some girls in Brazil, Australia, Latvia, Estonia… with the most idiotic hi-hello conversations- characteristic of adolescence. To my surprise, I discovered having a seemingly regular chat relation with a medical college student from Pune, a commerce student from Cuttack and an Arts student from Mumbai. I can still remember the first one is married and settled in UK; the female from Cuttack called me when she was in Mumbai, but that’s about it.
The earliest forwards was from a friend from college send me a mail titled “Type of men you meet in the Loo”, I took her case real bad coz the content was really intricate. Have a mail from my brother about what all can happen with ‘Hotel Soap’. Jokes, chain mails, pictures of Ferrari’s and cars as attachments- the list is just too long.
Somewhere around 2002, there is the first hint of me and my mail box becoming a bit serious, the first mail with assignment files on mail. The attachment is 28 kb- a word document on infra red imaging has set the stage for a lot of links of machines and technologies. By August 2003 the first CV has left the box, but not many replies to in seen. A mail in December that same year is from Team Lease; asking me for my bank details for my first pay, followed by a string of financial queries, pay slips and arbit stuff from Wipro GE Medical Systems.
In 2004, I started writing group mails to my friends, my first baby steps towards writing. The replies have been mostly critical of my typos and language errors. Never the less every single one was encouraging. There is also a new approach to flirting with me doing some research for the final project of a girl I liked, 7 mails on a subject I had no clue of... Well I somehow was confident that the way to success was to be the man around when it mattered- quite a myth as I see it now.
The next big thing was 2005, where lies my first Resignation letter. This one comes from a web site named i-resign.com which composed it for me off a template for the given situation. I copied this one and sent it to my boss. My Parting mail was replied back by almost all who received it. Some were encouraging my next move, some wishing the best, some summing up the 18 month journey as the start of a new one.
2005 to 2006, my mails have been a string of applications for MBA colleges, information on colleges and update from forums.
What is beyond 2006 is what I said the Gmail effect. Orkut became a hit and I shifted out to Gmail as my primary mail id. Yahoo still remained but became more of a receiving box rather than a send box. With that came a different set of friends and the old, either moved to Gmail or started losing touch.
In a way that is how advances in internet changed my life. What was once precious, became more like a storage. Like grains of sand in the hour clock, it moves from one side to the other, it settles at the bottom and sometimes gets lost as more grains come on top.
Out of the blue today, I happened to chat with my friend Rahul Pilani today and it struck me- damn, there was a time we had at least two forwards being shared across, chat on the messenger all night and all this was after having spent the whole day in college in the same class. Today, we started from the page where we knew the name and face; but no clue what we both are doing. End result- it prompted me to run down my mail box to trace when was it last I wrote a group mail to my college buddies.
What is has done has opened up a whole journey of time travel. My mail box has actually marked events in my life along with how I have changed as a person along the way.
I discovered I have a mail id on Yahoo since 1998, something I have as my rightful ownership since junior college when thanks to my brother, we finally had an internet enabled PC in the house. Those were the day of stealing user ids and passwords off VSNL users, 28.3 kbps modems and the ‘ppp’ and ‘F6’ to get into the wonder world of internet. I had a student account on VSNL that allowed no graphics, no surprise I never liked it or used it to the full.
By 1999, I was into engineering and the new toys in hand were the ICQ messenger, Yahoo Chat rooms etc. (Sorry, I’m unable to recall some other chat sites I frequented) Its stunning to know that I was a quite a flirt. I have mails from some girls in Brazil, Australia, Latvia, Estonia… with the most idiotic hi-hello conversations- characteristic of adolescence. To my surprise, I discovered having a seemingly regular chat relation with a medical college student from Pune, a commerce student from Cuttack and an Arts student from Mumbai. I can still remember the first one is married and settled in UK; the female from Cuttack called me when she was in Mumbai, but that’s about it.
The earliest forwards was from a friend from college send me a mail titled “Type of men you meet in the Loo”, I took her case real bad coz the content was really intricate. Have a mail from my brother about what all can happen with ‘Hotel Soap’. Jokes, chain mails, pictures of Ferrari’s and cars as attachments- the list is just too long.
Somewhere around 2002, there is the first hint of me and my mail box becoming a bit serious, the first mail with assignment files on mail. The attachment is 28 kb- a word document on infra red imaging has set the stage for a lot of links of machines and technologies. By August 2003 the first CV has left the box, but not many replies to in seen. A mail in December that same year is from Team Lease; asking me for my bank details for my first pay, followed by a string of financial queries, pay slips and arbit stuff from Wipro GE Medical Systems.
In 2004, I started writing group mails to my friends, my first baby steps towards writing. The replies have been mostly critical of my typos and language errors. Never the less every single one was encouraging. There is also a new approach to flirting with me doing some research for the final project of a girl I liked, 7 mails on a subject I had no clue of... Well I somehow was confident that the way to success was to be the man around when it mattered- quite a myth as I see it now.
The next big thing was 2005, where lies my first Resignation letter. This one comes from a web site named i-resign.com which composed it for me off a template for the given situation. I copied this one and sent it to my boss. My Parting mail was replied back by almost all who received it. Some were encouraging my next move, some wishing the best, some summing up the 18 month journey as the start of a new one.
2005 to 2006, my mails have been a string of applications for MBA colleges, information on colleges and update from forums.
What is beyond 2006 is what I said the Gmail effect. Orkut became a hit and I shifted out to Gmail as my primary mail id. Yahoo still remained but became more of a receiving box rather than a send box. With that came a different set of friends and the old, either moved to Gmail or started losing touch.
In a way that is how advances in internet changed my life. What was once precious, became more like a storage. Like grains of sand in the hour clock, it moves from one side to the other, it settles at the bottom and sometimes gets lost as more grains come on top.
Thursday, June 3, 2010
The Game of Perception
Go to any motivation workshop or listen to a good orator addressing a crowd- you will undoubtedly be recipients of pearls of wisdom on how to perceive things in a positive way. The glass is not half empty, not a ‘yes’ is not a ‘no’ either etc. What we are usually taught is to change our perception away from the harsh reality
It is rather surprising that in fact there are a few businesses that actually exist and function on the basis of perception.
I was reading an article in the papers last week which was talking of a list of Billionaires out of India. More than anything else, I was more involved in understanding what these league of extraordinary deep pockets do in life. Most were Chairman, MD’s, CEO’s of industrial houses or IT firms in India. What was even better was their value was a combination of movable and immovable assets, stocks, land holdings etc.
And that’s where the question popped in my mind, is this actually a measure of their monetary wealth? So if a certain Mr A sells his stocks, cars, aircrafts, houses, land etc, he is the richest man in India. That’s amazing- but sadly not true. All this was just perceived value.
Apparently in the 16th Century, the Spanish campaigns plundered the whole of South America and brought to Europe what was precious then; Silver: about 45000 tons of it. But what this influx did was devalue silver and resulted in breakdown of the whole economy of the Spanish empire. Main reason- the influx reduced the perceived value of silver and everything linked to prices of silver came down crashing.
It is much the same with Stocks or Real estate. Perceived value in such cases over rules Real value; sometimes by shocking margin. Most stock trade on a level which is exponential of their face value simply based on perceptions built out of speculations. The moment a large chunk of stocks are sold by anyone, value drops. So if Mr A even sells 2% of his stocks, he will lose a lot more money than he would gain through the sale. So by the time Mr A sells all his assets, I feel he would be lucky if he makes even 25% of his speculated worth.
Same is the case with Real Estate. If anyone sells a flat in Mumbai, I’m sure they cannot buy back the same place for the same value the next day. Real Estate can appreciate by close to 40% between the time you book a new flat and the day you actually occupy the same flat. There is no basis on why this may happen- but the perceived value just goes up. The day the builder sells four flats, the rate is hiked by a thousand.
Surprisingly this is how it is. We are all, to some extent are both: aware and skeptic of reality. I guess that is one reason, we all love the game of perception.
It is rather surprising that in fact there are a few businesses that actually exist and function on the basis of perception.
I was reading an article in the papers last week which was talking of a list of Billionaires out of India. More than anything else, I was more involved in understanding what these league of extraordinary deep pockets do in life. Most were Chairman, MD’s, CEO’s of industrial houses or IT firms in India. What was even better was their value was a combination of movable and immovable assets, stocks, land holdings etc.
And that’s where the question popped in my mind, is this actually a measure of their monetary wealth? So if a certain Mr A sells his stocks, cars, aircrafts, houses, land etc, he is the richest man in India. That’s amazing- but sadly not true. All this was just perceived value.
Apparently in the 16th Century, the Spanish campaigns plundered the whole of South America and brought to Europe what was precious then; Silver: about 45000 tons of it. But what this influx did was devalue silver and resulted in breakdown of the whole economy of the Spanish empire. Main reason- the influx reduced the perceived value of silver and everything linked to prices of silver came down crashing.
It is much the same with Stocks or Real estate. Perceived value in such cases over rules Real value; sometimes by shocking margin. Most stock trade on a level which is exponential of their face value simply based on perceptions built out of speculations. The moment a large chunk of stocks are sold by anyone, value drops. So if Mr A even sells 2% of his stocks, he will lose a lot more money than he would gain through the sale. So by the time Mr A sells all his assets, I feel he would be lucky if he makes even 25% of his speculated worth.
Same is the case with Real Estate. If anyone sells a flat in Mumbai, I’m sure they cannot buy back the same place for the same value the next day. Real Estate can appreciate by close to 40% between the time you book a new flat and the day you actually occupy the same flat. There is no basis on why this may happen- but the perceived value just goes up. The day the builder sells four flats, the rate is hiked by a thousand.
Surprisingly this is how it is. We are all, to some extent are both: aware and skeptic of reality. I guess that is one reason, we all love the game of perception.
Wednesday, May 19, 2010
All by the Bell
It is that time of the year when most companies in India complete their annual appraisal and a nervous moment for employees and organizations alike. Even though most organizations now have a policy of monthly or quarterly department reviews, half yearly reviews for employees, it all usually boils down to this one point.
The reason this ultimately becomes the moment of truth is the fact that this is the one and only occasion in the year when every person in an organization will get monetary rewards, usually depending on the level of their performance. Whether you like or dislike math & stats, this will be one time of the year where numbers, formulae, equations and their graphical plots will become most important part of you tea time chat, water cooler conversations, smoking break talks- basically everything away from work.
Also a new fascinating curve rules your mind; so fascinating, its mystique has been matched by the number of names it has: Bell Curve, Normal Distribution Curve or Gaussian Curve. This is usually the plot for the Normal Distribution equation which usually defines what Normal is. A typical plot of the normal distribution symbolizes where the most concentration of members within a given set lies. On any given day, most people will want this to be as narrow as possible with a sharp peak.
But appraisal isn’t just any day- its seriousness can only be matched by the judgment day. And this is one time where no one wants to be normal, all want to be extraordinary. Thanks to the beauty of this curve and its application, it has the potential to create discontent in any organization.
Suppose an organization offers 5 grades of appraisal where Grade 5 get 35%, Grade 4 gets 25%, Grade 3 gets 18%, Grade 2 gets 14% and Grade 1 gets 8%, the curve has the potential to distribute 100 employees in a perfect way where top 20 people will get either Grade 5 or 4, the next 60 will get Grade 3 and the last 20 get Grade 2 or 1. This is what I say the beauty of the formula which makes it such an appealing curve. But this is also the ugly side of the curve. It will always leave too few at the top and too many in the middle; leaving a lot of scope for discontent.
It is not unusual for a Grade 4 person to end up amidst Grade 3 and hence crown the person as normal. The problem is the fact that we like to express a continuous curve equation split by percentile slabs which are linear. Also the cake is baked based on the total turnover of the company- so you will be judges on a personal best but paid you share of the cake based on the company’s average.
Okay I realize that the math is pretty boring. So let us just try an analogical model. Not that I am a master in psychology, but I feel I’m good with metaphors.
So let us just take the curve to be a real Brass Bell, a nice hollow bell much like the shape of the normal curve. The bell has a sound edge and a clapper which together make the sound. In two dimensions, the sound edge is at the 2 ends, a hollow chamber in between with the clapper in the middle.
The edges form the top deciles of the bell curve; the edge struck by the clapper being the achievers (or ones who can be convincing fakes) and the other side being the cribbing party. The middle consists of the clapper; the workers who support the achievers. Since they are in the hollow, they just seem to resonate with the sounds from both edges.
Appraisals also have something funny about them. That’s called justifying the numbers. Usually, it is your reporting manager who has to play host to this part. The act is usually of convincing a Grade 4 of why a Grade 3 was awarded. Best excuse is; the company is not really doing well… meaning I know you deserve more, but there is a bag load of slackers you have to pay for from your incentive.
A question I want to ask in general is what came first; the data that gave rise to the equation and the curve or do we make the effort to just adjust data so that we can justify its dispersion with the curve?
How does a Grade 3 organization plan to retain Grade 5 and 4 employees if its all going to be All by the Bell?
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